Thanks to @chrisgbb for this graphical representation of the Mets vs Phillies chances of making the playoffs over the course of the 2012 season. As you can see, heading into the season, the Phillies had almost an 80% chance compared to about a 20% chance for the Mets. The Mets jumped ahead of the Phils around game 62, and haven’t looked back.
Now fresh off a David Wright walk-off single sealing a series victory over Jonathan Papelbon and the Philles, the Mets sit at just over 50% while the Phils are given about a 1% chance. That 1% seems a little low to me, with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Roy Halladay on the comeback trail, but they do have a LOT of catching up to do, and many teams ahead of them, so I can definitely understand it.
Here’s hoping these lines never cross again…unless they’re both at 100% after game 162.