A Dose of Optimism (Part 2 of 3)

As I indicated last week, there is a reasonable expectation that the pitching will improve this season when compared to 2009. However, there are several reasons to expect that improvement to be marginal (though I expect it to be significant). The offense, on the hand, is another matter…

Following is the projected lineup comparison (once Beltran returns from knee surgery).

2009 Opening Day Lineup

1. Jose Reyes – SS
2. Daniel Murphy – LF

3. Carlos Delgado – 1B

4. Carlos Beltran – CF

5. David Wright – 3B

6. Ryan Church – RF

7. Brian Schneider – C

8. Luis Castillo – 2B

2010 Projected Lineup

1. Jose Reyes – SS

2. Luis Castillo – 2B

3. Carlos Beltran – CF

4. Jason Bay – LF

5. David Wright – 3B

6. Jeff Francoeur – RF

7. Daniel Murphy – 1B

8. Rod Barajas – C

Let’s go by order in the lineup and see what improvements we can expect from this year’s team.

1. Obviously, we need more than the 36 games we got last year from Reyes. Oddly, he may start the season in the three slot (this is more apparent after yesterday’s Spring Training game), which has arguable merit. The leadoff spot was manned best in Reyes’ absence by Angel Pagan until he got hurt. Pagan is my odds-on favorite to win the CF job and get the leadoff slot should Manuel decide to bat Reyes third until Beltran returns. Assuming one month of Pagan and the rest of the season with Reyes, this slot can’t help but be a significant improvement over last year.

2. Murph was overhyped coming out of Spring last season. Also, the sky is blue, the President is Black, and Elmer Fudd has problems with the letter “R”. On the opposite end, I don’t know that we could have expected any less from Castillo. I’d take a repeat of last year from Castillo as the perfect no. 2 slot season (and word is, he’s lost more weight and is in better shape this year).

3. Carlos Delgado just had hip surgery – no, not that surgery, this is a new one. I’m sad for him, in part because I thought we could take a late flyer on him with an incentive-laden deal and he could wrestle the job from Murph. Before he got hurt, he was the only guy hitting moon shots to right at Citi Cavern. I think we’ve seen the last of Delgado, in any uniform. Odds are we’ll see Reyes for a month in this slot and then Beltran for the balance of the season. Again, nowhere to go but up.

4. Bay jumps into a slot that was best manned last year by… wait for it… Gary Sheffield. Yes, that Gary Sheffield, who if he lands a job this Spring will have played in four different decades. Bay has his issues, and maybe the back end of this contract will be ugly, but for now he replaces what we thought we’d get from Delgado last year, but from the right side. He will certainly be an improvement over Murph in left and is a .380 OBP guy who slugs over .500 and plays every day.

5. Which David Wright will we get this year? The guy who had his worst season as a pro, or the all-star we had for the previous four seasons. I remember arguments about who you’d take first to start a team – Wright or Pujols (now that argument is Mauer or Pujols). Wright’s anemic power may have been the result of little protection, adjustments to a new ballpark, girlfriend troubles, who knows… But, if you’re so inclined, take a look at his numbers last year. Ignoring the low homerun total, it wasn’t all that bad a year. In fact, it was a pretty good year (144 games, 80+ runs, 70+ rbis and a .390 OBP). Expect his slugging to improve some, Pujols to be caught on the juice and the argument to be Mauer vs. Wright.

6. This is the most underrated position upgrade on the team. Church was a AAAA player. Francoeur may not live up to the promise he showed in his early years as a Brave, but he has good pop, plays great defense in right (he has a sick cannon) and is a takes his lunchpail kind of guy. I wish he’d learn to take a walk, but if you look at his numbers as a Met last year (.311 BA, 10 HR, 40 R, 41 RBI in 75 games), there’s proof the change of scenery worked.

7. I’m not a fan of Murph. Keith Hernandez is working with him on his defense. Thoughts are he’ll platoon with Tatis. Maybe Jacobs will win the job. This is a hole, but on Opening Day last year we had Schneider. I’m hoping for midseason upgrade here – maybe Dunn, or even Keith if he wants to put the uniform back on.

8. Barajas plays defense, hits homeruns and doesn’t get on base much. He can throw folks out, which will be fun. Also, it’s looking like Blanco will be Santana’s caddy, and I think that can help.

Ok, so the seventh and eighth slots are problems. Still, we have reason to expect way more out of this offense than last year, even if there are some injuries.

That leaves us with the bullpen…